The Arctic This Week Take Five: Week of 18 August, 2025

Chinese Sabotage Ship Spotted in the Arctic Again

As reported by The Barents Observer on August 19, the Chinese container ship Newnew Polar Bear, which was involved in a sabotage incident near the region in 2023, has returned to Arctic waters after making a port call in Arkhangelsk. In October 2023, the vessel’s anchors damaged a gas pipeline and two communication cables in the Baltic Sea, which authorities determined was a deliberate act of sabotage. Although the Newnew Polar Bear escaped to Russian Arctic waters at the time, the ship’s captain has since been criminally charged in Hong Kong. The vessel is currently en route to China. (The Barents Observer)

Take 1: The Newnew Polar Bear’s sabotage of critical infrastructure in 2023 was a clear example of the increasing gray zone aggression in the Arctic. Gray zone activities refer to actions that occur between the areas of war and peace, typically falling below the threshold of armed conflict, but still aiming to destabilize, weaken, or attack the vulnerabilities of a target state. With tensions rising in the High North, gray zone aggression has become more common, posing a serious challenge to regional security. For example, in 2023, the Canadian Armed Forces detected and retrieved Chinese monitoring buoys that were conducting surveillance operations in Canadian Arctic waters. The dual-use nature of the equipment meant that the buoys were likely not only used to conduct scientific research, but also to monitor US submarine activity. Meanwhile, in Svalbard, the Russian government has instructed its fishing fleet to refrain from complying with certain Norwegian regulations, undermining Norway’s jurisdiction and authority over the area. Unlike conventional conflicts, this use of non-state actors makes it more difficult for states to identify, deter, and punish gray zone aggression. Although gray zone activities remain below the threshold of military response, the increasing prevalence of these actions in the Arctic raises the potential for escalation. Thus, the return of the Newnew Polar Bear to the region highlights the importance of strengthening Arctic monitoring and safeguards. (Atlantic Council, CBC News, Center for European Policy Analysis, Scandinavian Journal of Military Studies)

New Research Projects Severe Decline in Reindeer

As reported by UC Davis on August 15, a new study published in Science Advances predicts that climate change is likely to contribute to significant declines in the abundance and distribution of reindeer. Using reconstructed data from the past 21,000 years, the scientists found that reindeer populations have experienced major declines in the past during periods of rapid warming. The research estimates that the losses in the next decades due to further climate change are likely to be even more severe, particularly for North American caribou populations, which are expected to decline as much as 80% by 2100. (UC Davis)

Take 2: The projected decline of reindeer due to climate change is extremely alarming, especially given their vital importance to local communities and the Arctic ecosystem. Reindeer are central to the livelihoods of many Arctic inhabitants, providing food, transportation, clothing, shelter, and income. However, for many groups, they are also more than just livestock. Reindeer have a special role in the beliefs and traditions of Indigenous communities, connecting them to their landscape, heritage, and ancestors. Thus, reindeer are essential to the well-being and cultural life of the region’s Indigenous Peoples. Moreover, the animals perform critical functions that maintain the Arctic environment. Through feeding and trampling, reindeer influence plant diversity in the tundra and ensure that Arctic landscapes remain open. Since thick vegetation traps heat, grazing helps keep the ground cool and preserve the snow cover that is critical for reflecting sunlight, mitigating some of the effects of climate change. With the Arctic rapidly warming, reindeer populations have already experienced severe losses and face numerous threats, including from extreme weather, increased precipitation, re-emerging diseases, and changing vegetation patterns. As the new research highlights, these challenges are likely to intensify as temperatures in the Arctic continue to rise, resulting in disastrous consequences for reindeer populations. With reindeer having such an important role in the Arctic, preserving the species and supporting their long-term health is a critical priority. (BBC, Horizon Magazine, The Conversation, The International Centre for Reindeer Husbandry)

Canada and Finland Form New Strategic Partnership

As reported by Eye on the Arctic on August 19, Canada and Finland have announced a new strategic partnership on foreign and security policy. The initiative builds on years of cooperation, with both countries indicating that they will be enhancing policy dialogue at the political and working levels and maintaining regular engagement. In a joint statement, the two nations pledged to deepen cooperation in science, boost monitoring of Arctic waters and threats, ensure Arctic perspectives are incorporated in NATO activities, and continue collaboration on icebreakers and shipbuilding, particularly through the ICE Pact. (Eye on the Arctic)

Take 3: The new strategic partnership on foreign and security policy highlights Canada and Finland’s comprehensive commitment to the Arctic and strengthens the position of the two countries as leaders in Arctic affairs. At a time of increasingly tense and strained relations in the region, this enhanced bilateral relationship is also a firm demonstration of Arctic cooperation. In their joint statement, Canada and Finland identified numerous areas for greater collaboration, addressing multiple facets of the region’s challenges. While defense concerns are a central part of the new partnership, such as strengthening NATO’s approach to the region and icebreaker development, the two nations also identified the Arctic environment and Indigenous Peoples as key areas of focus. Specifically, Canada and Finland have pledged to continue collaborating on climate and environmental initiatives, supporting Arctic science, and advancing the rights, voices, and well-being of northern communities. With security issues becoming increasingly prevalent in Arctic affairs, this comprehensive approach reaffirms that the region’s other pressing concerns are still important priorities for both governments. However, while the strategic partnership is a momentous signal of diplomacy, these commitments can only be maintained through sustained and concrete action. Nevertheless, the new partnership provides an important opportunity for deeper dialogue, stronger action, and further cooperation in the Arctic. (Associated Press, Global Affairs Canada, Nordic Co-Operation)

Arctic Link: New Shipping Service Connects China and Europe

As reported by High North News on August 18, the Chinese Haijie Shipping Company will be launching the first liner-type container shipping route through the Arctic called the China-Europe Arctic Express. The new service will link the Chinese cities of Qingdao, Shanghai, and Ningbo to the European ports of Felixstowe, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Gdansk. The inaugural voyage is set to depart on September 20, and the route along the Northern Sea Route is expected to take 18 days. Compared to the irregular, single destination voyages that typically operate in the Arctic, liner services follow fixed sailing schedules and routes. (High North News)

Take 4: The new China-Europe Arctic Express highlights the growing opportunities and challenges for shipping as climate change makes the Arctic Ocean more accessible. Linking major Chinese and European ports in as little as 18 days, the new service is significantly faster than existing routes, such as via the Suez Canal, which can take 40 days. The Arctic route’s shorter distance also means less fuel consumption, reducing one of the largest components of a ship’s operating costs. However, although melting sea ice has opened up new routes, operating in the Arctic remains difficult and dangerous. As a result, Arctic shipping often has added financial costs, such as high insurance premiums and fees for icebreaker escorts, which could offset possible savings. Research has also indicated that warming temperatures have contributed to more extreme and variable weather in the region, potentially increasing fog, intense storms, and rough conditions that could make traversing Arctic waters even more hazardous in the future. These risks raise the likelihood of a serious accident or oil spill, which could devastate the Arctic’s sensitive environment, especially given the limited response capacity in the area. As the new service demonstrates, Arctic routes are becoming increasingly viable. However, the environmental concerns and continued dangers of Arctic shipping may outweigh the potential advantages. (Arctic Today, Belfer Center, Middlebury Institute of International Studies, The Arctic Institute)

Scientists Discover Slowdown in Arctic Sea Ice Melt

As reported by The Guardian on August 20, new research has revealed that the melting of sea ice in the Arctic has slowed in the past 20 years, possibly due to natural fluctuations in ocean currents that limit ice melting and balance out the rapid warming in the region. However, scientists warn that the findings, which were published in Geophysical Research Letters, do not indicate that Arctic sea ice is rebounding. Melting is highly likely to start again at accelerated rates after the temporary slowdown, sometime within the next five to ten years. (The Guardian)

Take 5: While the slowing of sea ice melt provides much-needed temporary relief, climate change remains a real and pressing threat to Arctic sea ice. Satellite measurements unequivocally illustrate that the sea ice minimum extent has shrunk by nearly half since monitoring began in 1979. Moreover, although the new study demonstrated that there may not have been a significant change in the sea ice extent since 2005, research also shows that the sea ice is still thinning. Therefore, Arctic sea ice volume, which depends on both ice thickness and extent, has continued to decline. Sea ice loss is a serious challenge for the Arctic environment. Ice has a critical role in reflecting solar energy, which cools the planet and helps regulate the global climate. Sea ice is also essential for the region’s wildlife, serving as an important habitat for marine mammals, seabirds, and land-roaming animals. The underside of ice further supports a range of microorganisms that are vital for the ecosystem and form the basis of the Arctic food web. Although the natural variations in ocean currents have helped maintain the sea ice extent in the last 20 years, the researchers warn that this phenomenon is only temporary and sea ice loss will accelerate again shortly. Given the importance of Arctic sea ice, the international community should use this temporary opportunity to take immediate climate action. (NASA, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Polar Science Center, Sea Ice Portal)